Donnerstag, 15. Juli 2010

Never trust a tool..

in das du die Fehler nicht selber eingebaut hast.

Ich mag an einer oder anderer Stelle hier StoxEv empfohlen haben..

Da ich grade selber an einem Tool was sich mit ICM und Sngs beschäftigt arbeite, habe ich einen Fehler bei der Berechnung entdeckt, der dem Programmierer von StoxEv auch bekannt ist. (er macht nur nix dagegen, weil einfacher zu programmieren)

Jedenfalls kann dies zu komplett falschen Ranges führen und ich habe evtl auch eine Weile nach diesen falschen Ranges gespielt.
Was mich vermutlich jede Menge Geld gekostet hat.. never trust..

Zumindestens was Push/Fold Situationen mit niedrigen Stacks in ICM Situationen betrifft.

StoxEv rundet einfach einen 7.5 stack auf 7 ab!

Also wird der Valuegewinn für einen Fold von Button und Smallblind im Stackszenario
7/7/7 so berechnet:

Value vor der hand icm(7/7/7)
Value nach der hand sollte icm(7/6.5/7.5) sein

Ist aber:
Icm(7/6/7)!! was natürlich einen enormen zuwachs des evs produziert, da auf einmal ein ganzer blind fehlt!

Damit ändern sich natürlich die Hände komplett die profitabler zu pushen als zu folden sind.
Und auch sonst berechnet er die icm situationen immer nur in ganzen blinds und rundet einfach ab!

Nicht mehr hernehmen dafür...


Momentan rein gar nichts, keine wsop, kein online.
Bin voll und ganz mit der Fertigstellung meiner Diplomarbeit (besagtes icm programm) beschäftigt, die ich in 2 Monaten fertig haben muss.


StoxEv ist immer noch ein großartiges Tool, die Abrundung findet nur in icm Situationen statt.


Es gibt sauviele kleine Fehler die man machen kann in noch viel mehr Situationen die selten vorkommen etc., ich will hier nicht StoxEv schlecht machen.. die eigentliche Lektion ist einfach gar keinem Tool blind zu vertrauen. ( auf der anderen Seite .. was für ne Wahl hat man ausser selber zu testen..)

z.B. hab ich grade einen Fehler korrigiert bei dem ich für die wahrscheinlichkeit eines push/call/fold szenario statt der overcall range die normale callrange hergenommen hab.
Fällt kaum auf im Ergebnis und hätte ich nicht gewusst wo zu schaun weil ich es eben mit StoxEv u.a. verglichen habe.. mir wäre es wohl nicht aufgefallen.


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